The record doesn’t quite testify to just how close this series has been. Two games have been decided by a single point. Of course, an old adage rings true in this case. Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.

New York is very much in the driver’s seat. While it wouldn’t be fair—or even advisable—to count the Spurs out they essentially need to play three games of perfect basketball to close this thing out.

The Knicks need a single win. Will it come tonight? The Spurs are slightly favored by the sportsbooks. They are playing with a home court advantage, which doesn’t count for nothing.

But, of course, prediction models are by no means perfect.

It may come down to how each team responds to what happened on Wednesday. Game 4 was a genuine disaster for the Spurs.

They were in a commanding position at the half—and lost anyway in a historic fashion. It doesn’t matter that the game was decided by a single point. That kind of loss can be demoralizing or motivating.

How will the Spurs respond? Can New York ride their momentum to a title tonight? We will find out soon. For now, let’s take a look at today’s props.

Single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.

We’ve taken this Luke Kornet line before and done pretty well with it. The thing is that 3 rebounds is decisively within his wheelhouse. He averaged 6 during the regular season and, standing at over 7 feet tall, is essentially built for what we’re asking of him.

The issue is playtime. He’s taken a very reduced role during the post-season, sometimes only getting a few minutes. Even playing mostly off the pine, he’s averaged 4 rebounds per game during the post-season.

There’s no debate that De’Aaron Fox can get to 16 points. He averages nearly 20, shooting 49% from the field. His Finals average is currently 14 points, but he’s cleared 16 in two of four games against the Knicks.

Last, we’ve got a pretty soft line on Mitchell Robinson. Robinson has been on pretty limited minutes lately and even missed a couple of games to injury during the post-season. Regardless, he’s a fairly steady scorer, averaging 5 points per game in the post-season off 68% shooting.

Multiple edges combined into one value-driven parlay.

We’ve got a four legged parlay at +1489.

Mitchell Robinson averages 9 rebounds per game. He’s been at closer to 5 during this series against the Spurs, but it won’t take anything remarkable to get him to 6.

Josh Hart at 11 points is a bit more of an ask. He averaged 12 during the regular season. Lately, though, he’s been a little cooler, sitting at 6 against the Spurs. His shooting has been holding up at around 50%. He’ll need volume to clear this over.

Jose Alvarado averages 8 points per game, shooting 41%. He’s averaged 5.3 against the Spurs so far, and cleared 6 in two of four games. With enough shot volume, he should get to where he needs to be.

Finally, we’ve got that line on Luke Kornet again. Before we needed 3 rebounds from him. This over asks for 4. In either case, the reasoning is similar. This line is slightly harder but still something he is very capable of.

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— Propsguru