It’s Saturday,

Which means we’re one sleep away from another full NFL Sunday.

There’s plenty to watch this weekend. The Rams will get Puka Nacua back for their trip to Philadelphia, but Aaron Donald is out. The Eagles will be without DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Zack Baun.

How will the Eagles look without their top WR and TE? I don’t even want to think about it.

Justin Jefferson is also out against Miami, leaving the 3–0 Vikings without their best receiver. And in Buffalo, Josh Allen gets a Patriots defense without both Christian Gonzalez and Christian Barmore.  Does that make his overs more interesting?

There’s also basketball tonight.

The NBA preseason tips off with Miami and Toronto in Québec City. Giannis Antetokounmpo begins his first preseason with the Heat, while Kawhi Leonard is back in Toronto.

Football tomorrow, basketball tonight.

Not a bad Saturday.

And before we get to the picks, let’s continue something we started yesterday and take another look at what our NFL passing models are showing us through four weeks.

Yesterday we looked at how much teams are throwing the ball across the league. Today, we’re looking at how many of those passes are being completed.

Two quarterbacks can get a similar number of attempts and still end up with very different completion totals. Accuracy, the types of throws they’re making, pressure and the defense they’re facing all play a role.

After four weeks, there are already some interesting differences showing up.

Arizona and Cincinnati are sitting at the top of our offensive completion projections, with Detroit also consistently toward the top. Baltimore is well below the rest of the league, while Minnesota, Washington and Atlanta are also on the lower end.

This is more interesting when you compare it with the attempts data from yesterday.

More attempts usually mean more chances to complete passes, but it doesn’t always work out that way. More attempts create more opportunities, but accuracy, pressure, the types of throws and the defense still determine how many become completions.

And then we get to the defense.

Minnesota currently sits at the lowest end of our opponent-completion projections, while Baltimore is at the opposite end. There’s also plenty packed into the middle, where relatively small differences can matter when a sportsbook line is sitting around 19.5 or 20.5 completions.

That’s why we wanted to look at these two charts separately.

Attempts help us understand the opportunity, completions give us a better idea of what teams and quarterbacks are doing with it.

And as we get more games, we’ll have a much clearer picture of which tendencies are sticking.

Saturday is really about seeing what happens to the lines.

A prop that looks interesting today can become much less attractive after a line moves, while another can become more interesting as new information hits the market.

You can follow the latest props on Quick Bets and keep an eye on Trending Props to see which markets are starting to attract attention.

Join the conversation on Discord to share slips, compare reads, and talk through the upcoming slate with the Propsguru community.

Tomorrow, we’ll be back at noon ET with our Featured Bets and the rest of our Sunday card.

Until then, enjoy your Saturday.

— Propsguru