Happy Saturday, friends.

After starting Week 3 with that Packers disaster in Green Bay, attention now turns to Sunday. And there’s plenty to get into.

Sam Darnold is back for Seattle after Drew Lock kept things moving in his absence. C.J. Stroud will have to face Indianapolis without Nico Collins. And Lamar Jackson and the Ravens head to Rio for one of the biggest games of the day.

The prop markets are already filling up, and our models are starting to find some interesting spots.

Our official Featured Bets will come tomorrow, but today we wanted to take an early look at what’s showing up.

Let’s get into it.

How key absences could change the prop market this weekend.

Injuries have already changed the look of tomorrow’s prop market.

The biggest one for us is Nico Collins, who will miss his second straight game with a hamstring injury. Houston struggled without him last week, but C.J. Stroud still threw for 353 yards as they played from behind. With Collins out again, we’ll be watching where those missing targets end up.  

Washington will also be without Jayden Daniels, meaning Marcus Mariota gets the start against Seattle. Mariota filled in after Daniels went down last week, but now he gets a full game and a full week of preparation as the starter.

On the other side of that game, Sam Darnold is back. Seattle didn’t miss a beat with Drew Lock, who helped keep them unbeaten while Darnold was out, but the offense now goes back to its starter. That makes Seattle’s passing props interesting as the market adjusts to Darnold’s return.  

And those are just a few of the injury situations we’ll be watching. One player going out can change much more than his own prop. It can shift targets, passing volume and even the game script for everyone around him.

That’s why today’s numbers are still just an early look.

With those injuries in mind, we’re already seeing a few numbers worth watching before tomorrow.

C.J. Stroud over 32.5 pass attempts is one of them. Stroud threw 55 times without Nico Collins last week, so we’ve already seen Houston put the ball in his hands in this situation. Now he faces a Colts defense that has given up 706 passing yards through two games. If Houston leans on Stroud again, 32.5 is a number worth watching.

Our model also likes Marcus Mariota under 29.5 pass attempts. Washington is averaging 157 rushing yards per game and may look to lean on that ground game with Jayden Daniels out, rather than asking Mariota to throw 30+ times against a tough Seattle defense.

Then there’s Jameis Winston under 18.0 completions. He completed just 11 of 27 after replacing Jaxson Dart on Monday. He’ll have a full week to prepare this time, but 19 completions would still be a big jump from what we just saw.

These aren’t our Featured Bets yet. The lines can still move and the model will continue updating before kickoff.

But these are three we’ll be keeping an eye on today.

Saturday is really about seeing what happens to the lines.

A prop that looks interesting today can become much less attractive after a line moves, while another can become more interesting as new information hits the market.

You can follow the latest props on Quick Bets and keep an eye on Trending Props to see which markets are starting to attract attention.

Join the conversation on Discord to share slips, compare reads, and talk through the upcoming slate with the Propsguru community.

Tomorrow, we’ll be back at noon ET with our Featured Bets and the rest of our Sunday card.

Until then, enjoy your Saturday.

— Propsguru