Both teams are 3–2, but neither has much room for error in their divisions. Seattle is chasing the undefeated 49ers in the NFC West, and while the Rams have stumbled a lot, they’re far too loaded to count out. Denver, meanwhile, is trying to keep pace with a resurgent Chiefs in the AFC West.
And Seattle didn’t do itself any favors last Sunday, turning the ball over four times in a 32–29 loss to the Niners. Sam Darnold hasn’t exactly been at his best since returning from injury, throwing five interceptions in his last three games, including two last week.
Things haven’t been much better for Bo Nix in Denver. He’s struggled enough that Sean Payton has taken over play-calling duties.
It worked well to get a divisional win last week, although the offense still managed just 224 yards against Los Angeles.
And things aren’t about to get any easier tonight.
Seattle comes into the game with one of the NFL’s best defenses, allowing just 251.2 yards per game. That’s a pretty tough test for a Broncos offense that has struggled to move the ball all season.
Both quarterbacks have plenty to prove tonight, and their passing numbers are particularly interesting heading into this matchup.
We’ve got a couple of picks too, so let’s get into them.
Today’s Featured Bets
These are single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.
Let’s start with Sam Darnold.
Seattle’s running game has been a problem all season. Losing Kenneth Walker III was a big blow, and injuries to rookie Jadarian Price and Zach Charbonnet have only made things worse.
The Seahawks’ running backs are averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, and they’ve struggled to get much going on the ground.
That’s what makes tonight’s matchup interesting.
Denver is allowing 145.2 rushing yards per game, one of the worst in the league. If there’s a game where Seattle can finally get its running game going, this might be it.
Darnold is averaging around 29.5 passing attempts per game, and our model is backing under 30.5 attempts.
But there’s a reason to be cautious.
Denver will be without Pat Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga, leaving the secondary vulnerable. And with Seattle struggling to run the ball, Darnold could end up throwing more than usual.
For Bo Nix, we’re taking under 34.5 passing attempts.
He’s stayed under that number in four of his five games this season. And with Seattle generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks at one of the highest rates in the league, Nix could be in for another difficult night.
Sean Payton took over play-calling duties last week, but Denver still managed only 224 yards against the Chargers. It’s hard to see things getting much easier against this Seattle defense.
The concern here is game script. If Denver falls behind early, Nix could be forced to throw more, regardless of how well the offense is playing.
We’ll see whether the model gets both quarterbacks right tonight.
That’s It for Today
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Explore the live model insights for today’s game on our Quick Bets and Game Pages. And remember, these lines will continue to move before kickoff, so keep an eye on the website to see where the edge improves or disappears.
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We’ll be back with the recap tomorrow.
— Propsguru
