Football is back tonight, and we’ve got an interesting one to open Week 5.

The Cowboys host the Buccaneers, and both teams are in very different situations.

Dallas is 2–2 and coming off a wild 34–30 win over Houston. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is still searching for its first win, and with Baker Mayfield sidelined by a thumb injury, rookie Jalon Daniels will make his second NFL start tonight.

And he’s walking into a Cowboys offense that cannot stop scoring, even when they lose.

Dallas has averaged 34 points over the last three games, the highest in the league during that stretch. Last weekend, Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards, while CeeDee Lamb went crazy with 17 catches for 189 yards.

But Tampa Bay might be a tougher opponent than their 0–4 record suggests.

The Buccaneers have been among the top five NFL defenses in yards allowed, third-down conversion rate and red-zone touchdown percentage this season. Their offense has been the problem.

Dallas has its own defensive issues too, though. The Cowboys have recorded just four sacks and haven’t managed a single interception after four games.

Which could give Daniels a chance to make things interesting in his first road start.

As always, we’ve got featured bets for tonight’s game, so let’s get into the picks.

These are single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.

We’ve got two featured bets for tonight, and I’ll admit we’re taking both with some trepidation.

If you’ve been following our NFL picks this season, you’ll know that Dak Prescott hasn’t exactly been kind to the model. He’s blown past every passing-attempt under we’ve taken on him so far.

He’s averaging 37.5 attempts and 26.2 completions after four games. Last weekend against Houston, we had him under 35.5 attempts and 24.5 completions, he finished with 45 attempts and 32 completions.

And somehow, here we are taking his unders again.

The argument tonight starts with Tampa Bay’s defense. Despite being 0–4, the Buccaneers have been one of the better defensive teams in the league, particularly at limiting yards and keeping opponents out of the end zone.

But there’s a reason we’re cautious.

If Tampa Bay keeps this game close, Dak has shown he’s more than capable of throwing 40-plus passes. And with CeeDee Lamb coming off a 189-yard performance against Houston, Dallas has the receiving talent to keep attacking through the air.

That’s the risk we’re taking tonight. Our model sees an edge on both unders, but the confidence is low, and Dak’s recent performances give us plenty of reasons to be nervous.

We’ll see whether the model finally gets the better of Dak tonight.

What do you think? Are you just fading the model here?

We do the modeling; the community sharpens the edge.

Explore the live model insights for today’s game on our Quick Bets and Game Pages. And remember, these lines will continue to move before kickoff, so keep an eye on the website to see where the edge improves or disappears.

Join the conversation on Discord to share slips, compare reads, and follow the games with a growing community focused on smarter prop betting.

We’ll be back with the recap tomorrow.

— Propsguru