Thursday Night Football is here, and both teams could really use this one.

The Packers finally got their first win of the season on Sunday, but by the skin of their teeth. Now they’re back at Lambeau for their home opener with a chance to put that shaky start behind them.  

Atlanta has much bigger problems.

The Falcons are 0–2, have scored just 16 points through two games and haven’t reached the red zone yet. After two weeks of Cooper Rush, they’re finally getting Michael Penix Jr. back tonight.  

It’ll be Penix’s first start since tearing his ACL last November, and he gets to make his return under the lights at Lambeau.  

So there’s plenty riding on this one. And of course, we’ve got props.

Let’s get into tonight’s Featured Bets.

These are single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.

First we have Michael Penix Jr. under 31.5 pass attempts. Penix is making his first start of the season after returning from the ACL injury that ended his 2025 season.

Atlanta has struggled to get much going offensively through two games, and with Penix just getting back under center, we like the chances of the Falcons keeping his passing volume relatively controlled.

Then we have Jordan Love under 31.5 pass attempts. This is the same prop we highlighted in yesterday’s Way Too Early Pick, and the model still likes it.

Love threw 42 times in Week 1 while Green Bay was chasing the game, but that dropped to 29 attempts against the Jets. The Packers have continued trying to establish the run, and if they can play from ahead at home tonight, Love may not need to put the ball in the air 32 times.

So tonight, our model is essentially expecting a lower-volume passing game from both quarterbacks.

What do you think? Are you with us on both unders tonight?

Two props we like, combined into one parlay.

For tonight’s parlay, we’re putting the two unders together at +241.

Both legs are built around the same general read on the game. We’re expecting Atlanta to ease Michael Penix Jr. back into action rather than immediately asking him to throw 32-plus times, while Green Bay has shown it still wants to establish the run and keep Jordan Love’s volume under control when the game script allows it.

If tonight stays relatively balanced, we like both quarterbacks to finish below 31.5 attempts.

We do the modeling; the community sharpens the edge.

Explore the picks and live model insights across today’s slate on our Quick Bets and Game Pages. And remember, these lines will continue to move throughout the day, so keep an eye on the website to see where the edge improves or disappears.

Join the conversation on Discord to share slips, compare reads, and follow the games with a growing community focused on smarter prop betting.

We’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow.

— Propsguru