Happy Saturday Folks!

Between the trade rumors and injuries, we’ve got quite a bit to talk about ahead of game-day tomorrow.

Marvin Harrison Jr. looks like he could be on his way out of Arizona. The Cardinals selected him fourth overall in the 2024 Draft, and just two years later, things haven’t worked out quite as expected.

The Colts have emerged as a possible destination, which is interesting considering Indianapolis sent TWO first-round picks to the Jets for Sauce Gardner last year. They don’t have another first-round pick until 2028, so I’m curious what they’d be willing to offer Arizona.

Meanwhile, Sunday’s injury list isn’t looking too good for a few teams.

The Eagles are heading to London to face Jacksonville without Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, and Hollywood Brown. That’s a lot of offensive talent missing for a Philly team that hasn’t been convincing this season.

The Jaguars are 3–1, and I imagine they’ll be feeling pretty good about their chances.

The Ravens also have a problem heading into Atlanta. Lamar Jackson is out, leaving Tyler Huntley to start against a Falcons team that just put 45 points on the Saints on Monday night.

Baltimore has been one of the NFL’s most productive offenses this season, but we’ll see how much of that Huntley can keep going without Lamar.

Cincinnati could also be without Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins against Miami, with both receivers listed as questionable.

The unbeaten Vikings have their own concerns, with Justin Jefferson questionable ahead of their trip to New Orleans.

There’s plenty to consider heading into Sunday, particularly how these absences could affect quarterback performances and the passing markets we’re watching.

And while we’ve been preoccupied with the NFL, the NBA season has quietly crept up on us. The 2026–27 season tips off on October 20, just ten days from now, and preseason basketball is already underway.

We’ve been working on our NBA models ahead of the new season, and today we’re sharing a closer look at how we’re building and testing them.

One of the biggest challenges with predicting NBA player performance is accounting for changes in playing time. A player averaging 20 minutes could suddenly play 35 because of an injury to a teammate, while another could see his minutes reduced following a change in rotation.

Our new minutes model attempts to account for these changes by combining historical playing time with information from sportsbook betting lines. We’re also giving more weight to recent performances, allowing the model to adjust as players’ roles change throughout the season.

But building the model is only half the work. We also need to know whether it actually produces better predictions.

We’re testing it against historical NBA seasons from 2023 to 2026, comparing its accuracy with simpler approaches like using a player’s last five games or season average.

Once we’re satisfied with the minutes projections, we’ll move on to the scoring component and eventually use both to estimate the probability of a player going over or under a sportsbook’s line.

We’ve published a more detailed breakdown of our approach, including how we’re testing the model and measuring its accuracy.

Saturday is really about seeing what happens to the lines.

A prop that looks interesting today can become much less attractive after a line moves, while another can become more interesting as new information hits the market.

You can follow the latest props on Quick Bets and keep an eye on Trending Props to see which markets are starting to attract attention.

Join the conversation on Discord to share slips, compare reads, and talk through the upcoming slate with the Propsguru community.

Tomorrow, we’ll be back at noon ET with our Featured Bets and the rest of our Sunday card.

Until then, enjoy your Saturday.

— Propsguru