The Spurs aren’t evened the series last night with a decisive 103-82 win. Victor Wembanyama set the tone, putting up 33 points. Now the defending champs are in a much tighter position than they were likely hoping for this late in the post-season.

We’ll have more action to cover today. For right now, let’s take a look at how last night’s picks went.

Last Night’s Featured bets delivered with 2 hits and 1 miss.

We needed 4 rebounds out of Keldon Johnson. He managed 3. If only Luke Kornet had saved a board or two for his teammate. We only needed three from Kornet. He grabbed 7 in just thirteen minutes of playtime.

Finally, Victor Wembanyama. Wembanyama had a genuinely lights out game. Fortunately for us, his remarkable performance did not involve grabbing 14 rebounds. He pulled off 8 on his way to leading the Spurs to victory.

Hauntingly close to a perfect record, we’re still happy to have gone 2-1. How did your picks go?

Single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.

Realistically, any player in the NBA can manage 2 rebounds. Schroder has been averaging almost exactly 2 during the post-season, though he’s been closer to 3 over his last ten games.

The outcome of this line will depend a little on how he’s played. He was on the floor for just nine minutes on Saturday, and collected no rebounds during that time. Ideally, we’d like to see him double those minutes, though it’s not strictly necessary to meet the line.

Landry Shamet averaged 9 points per game off 43% shooting during the regular season. He’s registering closer to 6 against the Cavs. Shamet has been very efficient during the post season, shooting 50% from the field.

Again, the bottleneck is minutes. His playtime has been halved during the playoffs, down to just thirteen minutes per game. With enough looks, he should clear seven points comfortably.

And we’ve got a 6 or over on Miles McBride. He averages 15 against the Cavs, shooting 42%. This line is a little tricky in that McBride has been cold recently. He’s very capable of clearing the over. However, he’s only met this particular line three times in his last ten games.

Hot and cold shooting has been partially to blame. We’d also like to see him get five or more looks. It’s a very plausible line. He’s just got to execute.

Multiple edges combined into one value-driven parlay.

We’ve got a seven legged parlay at +9180.

Let’s see what we’re working with.

Harper at 11 or more is solid. He’s averaged 13 over the post-season, shooting 52%, and he’s been at 12 during this particular playoff series. We’ll just hope his efficiency holds.

Jared McCain at under 11 is equally plausible. He’s been averaging 9 during the post-season, shooting 42%.

We had this exact same line on Victor Wembanyama on Saturday—and won off it. He averages 12 rebounds per game, but is capable of finding 20+. It’s a plausible pick, though betting against guys like him is always a little uncomfortable.

Chet Holmgren has averaged 16 points per game, shooting more than 50% from the field. We’ll want his volume to hold at around 10-15 shots. Really though, this is very in his wheelhouse.

Alex Caruso has been averaging 10 points per game during the playoffs, shooting 52% from the field. He was scoreless in his last game, but has otherwise been reliably clearing 9 points with some consistency.

Luguentz Dort has been a little quiet during the post-season. He’s averaging 5 points, but is historically closer to 9 against the Spurs.

Still reading? We’ve got one more. De’Aaron Fox at 15 or more points. He’s been threatening 20 points per game very consistently during the playoffs, shooting 46%. Fox has cleared this line in four of his last five games.

It’s a big one. That said, none of the lines are wildly unlikely.

We do the modelling; the community sharpens the edge.

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We’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow with updated edges. Enjoy your Memorial Day!

— Propsguru