It’s Friday! welcome back to Props Daily.
Our model has surfaced new edges to close out the week. First, let’s see how yesterday’s picks did.
Featured Bets Recap
0-3 on Featured Bets. Roles held, outcomes didn’t.
Mark Williams finished with 4 rebounds, well below his line. His role was there, but the Hornets controlled the glass throughout and limited his usual rebounding.
Deandre Ayton’s efficiency suffered against OKC’s interior. He went 4-7 for 8 points in the Lakers home beatdown.
Dillon Brooks put up 13 points on 41.7% shooting. The volume was there to get him over the line, but efficiency wasn’t.
Rough night. How did your other picks do?
Today’s Featured Bets
Single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.
Kobe Brown plays a limited, low-usage role for the Pacers. He’s averaging 2.8 RPG this season, and 4 RPG the last 10 games where he’s been used more. His role does not get enough volume for this line, so the under holds.
Brice Sensabaugh is averaging 12.3 PPG on 46% shooting. He needs a clear spike in volume to get to this line. While he does have the ability to get hot, he has not done it consistently within his role. The edge is under 20.5 points.
Cody Williams has been on a great run lately, averaging 18 PPG the last 10. This line leans toward that recent form over his 8.2 PPG season. Against Houston, without a defined scoring role, his volume should be in check to hold the under.
Today’s Parlays
Multiple edges combined into one value-driven parlay.
We hit on our parlay yesterday, consolation for Featured bets. So we’ve got another two legged parlay at +262.
Ousmane Dieng operates in a limited offensive role, averaging 7.0 PPG this season. This line requires a clear jump in usage to get there, and that volume isn’t guaranteed. The under holds the edge.
Jaylen Brown is having an MVP season, averaging 28.8 PPG. This line is below his typical output, and his shot volume is always consistent. We expect more of the same today to clear the over.
That’s it for today
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— Propsguru
