Greetings friends, welcome back to Props Daily. We’re inching ever closer to the start of the NBA playoffs, I hope your team is well positioned. As always, our model has surfaced a few edges. First, let’s see how yesterday’s picks did.
Featured Bets Recap
1-1-1 on Featured Bets. Santos ruled out, Jones missed, Williams came through.
Gui Santos was ruled out pre-game with a pelvic injury, so that leg voided.
Kam Jones finished with 9 points, going over by a bucket. Our role concern was right, but his efficiency (50% shooting) pushed him over.
Cody Williams came through, for us, with 9 points. Without hitting his ceiling, the volatility worked in our favor and the under landed.
How did your other plays do?
Today’s Featured Bets
Single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.
Mark Williams has been consistent on the glass, averaging 8.1 rebounds this season. He’s listed as questionable for tonight’s game, but when active, his role is stable in the Suns front court. If he’s active, a typical night seals the over.
Deandre Ayton is averaging 12.4 PPG on 67.5% shooting in the purple and gold . He’s facing 1 seed OKC, which can be a tougher interior matchup, but his scoring mostly comes from his role around the rim not volume. With steady minutes, the over holds.
And finally, Dillon Brooks had a slow start on his return yesterday, going 4-13 for 9 points. He should have enough volume in his usual role against the Hornets, who give up a lot of perimeter scoring. With efficiency, the over holds the edge.
Today’s Parlays
Multiple edges combined into one value-driven parlay.
We’ve got a two legged parlay at +252.
Dennis Schröder has a stable role off the ball, even if his scoring has been inconsistent. This line sits below his season average (10.8 PPG) but slightly over his recent form (5.9 PPG). With stable minutes, the over is in play.
James Harden has fallen short on our picks lately, but this is a lower line that should easily clear with his typical role and shot volume. We’re taking the over.
That’s it for today
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— Propsguru
