It’s Hump Day!

The playoffs are right around the corner. Until then, we’ve got a little bit of action to cover. There may not be as many games as NBA fans are used to right now, but so far they are delivering. How about that frantic finish to the Hornets game last night?

Here’s hoping for more excitement in the days to come. As you probably guessed, our model has surfaced some new edges. Before we get into that, let’s see how yesterday’s picks did.

Last Night’s Featured bets went 1 - 2.

We were on the money with Kawhi Leonard, whose efficient 24 point performance still allowed him to meet our under.

Royce O’Neale came in under by a hair, with a 7 point performance on 60% shooting. One or two more looks probably would have added him to our win tally.

Alas, the odds were not in our favor. Brook Lopez proved that by grabbing 8 rebounds. We were close on all three, but you can see where that gets you. How did your picks do?

Single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.

Anthony Black pretty consistently finds his way to at least 13 points. He averages 15 per game on 45% shooting, but is minutes dependent, and has been seeing reduced playtime lately. He’ll need to dial in and capitalize on his looks to clear our over.

Tristan da Silva’s is a softer line. With the exception of a few recent cold games, he’s been routinely in double digits on 45% shooting. In those games that found him in early single digits, he shot in the low 20s.

Finally, Gui Santos. He’s consistently under 5 rebounds but does display flashes of greatness around the boards. He grabbed 7 rebounds in his last game. Still, Santos has been playing reduced minutes lately, which could support our under.

Multiple edges combined into one value-driven parlay.

We’ve got a three legged parlay at +647.

Bennedict Mathurin usually has an easy way finding at least 13 points. He averages 18, and with the exception of a few recent quiet games, has been consistently threatening—or managing—20+ points per game.

Al Horford is a little less consistent. His 42% field goal average for the season is misleading. Some games he is a poster boy for efficiency. Other games, he’s sub 30%. We’ll need a decent showing to clear the over.

Brook Lopez is the final piece of the puzzle. Just yesterday, we lost on a similar under. Lopez does have every appearance of being born to rebound. Still, he averages only 4 per game, and might be due for a more typical night. At least that is what we are hoping.

We do the modeling; the community sharpens the edge.

Explore more picks and live model insights across today’s slate on our Quick Bets and Game Pages.

Join the conversation on Discord to share slips, compare reads, and sharpen your edge. You can be part of a growing community focused on smarter prop betting.

We’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow with updated edges. Enjoy the rest of the Play In!

— Propsguru