The NBA post-season starts this Friday. Until then, we’ve got a little more action to cover. Our model is as sharp as ever. It has surfaced a few edges, including a solid set of props and a strong value parlay. Let’s get into it, shall we?

No games last night means nothing to recap.

Single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.

No question, an under on Kawhi Leonard is a little daunting. The man is a beast, but the number is doing a lot of the work here. He’s only cleared 31 points once in his last ten games, the number is doing a lot of the work here. 

Royce O’Neale has had a quiet year. Recently, though, his production has ramped up as the forward has been getting more looks. He’s reached double digits in his last two games. On 4/8, he lit up the court on 70% shooting.

Finally, Brook Lopez. The 7’1 center is (naturally) a rebound machine. He’s very capable of clearing 5 rebounds, but lately he’s not been making the most of his minutes. Both scoring and rebounding have been consistently on the softer side of his averages. To describe this development as a slump would be quite the overstatement. Still, there is opportunity in it.

Multiple edges combined into one value-driven parlay.

We’ve got a three legged parlay at +579.

Grayson Allen is a proven scorer, but has been on the wrong side of double digits in four of his last five games. This owes to a combination of low-volume shooting, and a short-term dip in his field goal percentage. That said, for most of the season—including basically all of March, 11+ points has been a virtual lock.

Dillon Brooks clearing 18 points is minutes dependent, for the most part. As long as he’s getting his looks, and his field goal percentage holds, he can get there. He’s averaging 20 points for the season.

Finally, Royce O’Neale. Seven points is a relatively soft over for him. He doesn’t always get there, but does average 10 points for the season. As long as he is getting minutes and taking enough shots, 7 points should fall easily into place.

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— Propsguru