It’s finally Friday! Welcome back to Props Daily. We’ve got a little action ahead of us tonight with the final round of the Play-In tournament underway.

The Hornets and the Magic face off for eighth seed positioning in the Eastern Conference. The Warriors and Sun do the same in the West.

As always, our model has surfaced a few edges. First, let’s look ahead to tonight’s favored outcomes.

Who will play their way into the post-season?

The Hornets and the Suns are favored in their respective conferences, but it’s close.

The Warriors have been limping their way to this point in the season. The win that got them to tonight’s matchup was only their second in nine starts.

Does that mean the Suns will have an easy path to the post-season? This time of year, nothing is ever “easy.” The Warriors might have had their struggles, but all it takes is one good night to turn things around.

Things are arguably even more interesting in the Hornets VS. the Magic matchup. The Hornets went 3-1 against the Magic in the regular season. However, the Magic are going into tonight’s game with a rest advantage.

Who do you have making it to the playoffs?

Single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.

With only two games to work with, our model had a little less to choose from than usual. It did still find a couple of good looks at Tristan da Silva.

da Silva has averaged 10 points over his last ten games off 46% shooting. When he’s on the court long enough—around 22 minutes based on recent history—he tends to clear double digits. It really just depends on how many looks he’s getting though. Recently, he’s made good use of 8-10 shots per game.

If he can stay in that range for tonight, he should clear the over. He’s averaged nearly 4 per game in his last ten showings. As long as that holds tonight, we’ll be alright for this over.

Multiple edges combined into one value-driven parlay.

We’ve got a three legged parlay at +1083. Anthony Black has been sitting on a 10 point per game average over his last ten games.

He’s historically been good for closer to 15, but his field goal percentage has dipped a little from 45% for the season, to 36% more recently. This year he’s shot 41% against the Hornets, which could see him to the right side of our over, if he gets enough looks.

Ryan Kalkbrenner is very dependent on how many looks he’s getting. He shoots 75%, but usually off of only 2-3 shots per game. We’ll need just a little more than that to get us to the over.

Finally, Tristan da Silva. We’ve already made our case for why he shouldn’t have much trouble getting to 3.5 rebounds. As parlays go, there’s plenty of plausibility here. As always, the trouble is deciding if all of these things will happen on the same night.

We do the modelling; the community sharpens the edge.

Explore more picks and live model insights across today’s slate on our Quick Bets and Game Pages.

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We’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow with updated edges. Enjoy your Friday!

— Propsguru