The Knicks are now 3-0 on the Cavs. They need just one more win to play their way into the finals. This was their tenth straight post-season victory, and a reasonably decisive one. They took Cleveland 121-108. Not a blowout, by any means. Still, at this stage of a series, that type of win sends a message.

The Knicks are not going to slip up. If the Cavs want to pull off an (increasingly) unlikely comeback, their going to need to fight hard for it.

We’ve got more to look at today. First, let’s see how yesterday’s picks went.

Last Night’s Featured bets delivered with 1 hit and 2 misses.

We needed 19 points out of Cavs star James Harden. He gave us exactly that. It might have been a frustrating night for him. As for us though—well. We’ll take the win.

Sam Merrill, on the other hand, came up just short, scoring 6 points. He shot a respectable 40% from the field, but with fewer than ten looks, it wasn’t enough volume to clear the over.

And Miles McBride’s 5 point game left us with a losing record. It was a combination of things. He played for only 14 minutes, shot a lukewarm 33% from the field, and took only five shots for the game.

Honest take—we’re never hoping to go one and two, but the picks themselves were well-reasoned, and the outcomes were very close. Things just didn’t break our way.

Single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.

Keldon Johnson has been averaging close to 5 rebounds per game over his last ten, and 4.6 against the Thunder in particular. He’s actually only cleared this line once in five games, but it’s a figure he is very capable of reaching in the right circumstances.

Luke Kornet is in a similar position. He averages 4 for the season, and 8 against the Thunder in particular. However, he has only cleared his line twice in his last five games.

For him, it’s largely a matter of minutes. He’s been averaging about 6 minutes less per game than he was playing in the regular season. He can clear the over even with reduced playtime. That said, it wouldn’t hurt things at all to have him out there.

Finally, Victor Wembanyama. Arguably the most compelling player in the game right now, Wembanyama can get 20+ boards in a game. He averages right around 13. This is certainly a realistic under—it’s hard to get that many rebounds no matter who you are.

That said, he is also a tough man to bet against.

Multiple edges combined into one value-driven parlay.

We’ve got a five legged parlay at +5320.

Luke Kornet has been averaging 4 rebounds over the post-season. The trouble is that they are not exactly evenly distributed. He’ll find 8 one game, and 2 the next. He’s very capable of collecting 4—and has in fact averaged 8 against the Thunder—but there’s always some uncertainty.

And is now really the time to bet against Victor Wembanyama? The man has been a force of nature this year. That said, rebounds are a finicky stat line. He had 4 last night—and 24 on Monday.

Keldon Johnson has been sitting on 3 rebounds and 8 points over the post-season. Neither average clears the overs on this one. That said, he’s closer to 5 rebounds and 14 points against the Thunder.

Alex Caruso has averaged under 10 points literally all season, but is very capable of pushing well into double digits. He’s actually been hot handed recently, shooting 60-75% from the field on his way to a 21 point average over his last five games.

Last, we’ve got Jared McCain. McCain has been shooting 42% from the field, and getting about 8 points per game out of it. He has also been on the higher side of his typical production, averaging 14 points over his last five games. That said, 11 or under is, historically, a safe line.

We do the modelling; the community sharpens the edge.

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We’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow with updated edges. Enjoy your Sunday!

— Propsguru