Adam Silver discussed a proposed “anti-tanking” policy on Stephen A. Smith’s radio show. “There’s even something we’re calling draft regulation….If you’re one of the bottom three teams, you’ll actually have worse odds that are four through up.”

We’ve all watched, in frustration, as a struggling team phones it in for the last leg of the season. Anti-tanking protocols will inevitably be controversial, but do they have the potential to improve the state of the game?

Right now, the “bottom three” teams aren’t really on the mind. We’ve got a weekend full of playoff activity to cover. Let’s get into it.

Single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.

Keldon Johnson has been averaging 4 rebounds during the post-season. He’s only logged 4 or more once in his last five games, but has historically been pretty reliable at finding at least five.

He averages nearly 4 against the Timberwolves.

Then there is Luke Kornet. He’s also been putting up modest numbers lately, but mostly because he’s been getting a lot fewer minutes in his last five games.

If he can log a little more play time tonight, boards should follow.

Finally, we’ve got Dennis Schroder scoring 7 points. In terms of averages, he’s been at 7 consistently throughout the post-season. He shoots 42% from the field. As long as his shooting holds, he should have a clear path to 7 points.

Today’s Parlays

Multiple edges combined into one value-driven parlay.

We’ve got a bonkers seven legged parlay. You’ll get +8006 odds on this one. Let’s take a look.

  • Jalen Duren-Over 9.5 Total Rebounds

  • Tobias Harris-Under 17.5 Total Points

  • Jalen Duren-Over 11.5 Total Points

  • Evan Mobley-Over 15.5 Total Points

  • Tobias Harris-Under 6.5 Total Rebounds

  • James Harden-Over 20.5 Total Points

  • Dennis Schröder-Over 7.5 Total Points

Jalen Duren logging 10 rebounds is a tough one. He averaged 10 for the regular season, and has been at 8 in the playoffs. Duren hasn’t logged 10 since 5/7. Finding 10 rebounds is never a sure thing no matter how talented (or big) the player is.

He’s also been shooting 50% from the field during the playoffs, logging almost 10 points per game on average. It’s been six games since he scored 12 or over.

Tobias Harris at under 18 is an easier line to feel comfortable with. He’s been averaging 20 over the post-season, but he was at closer to 13 during the regular season.

He’s also been close to 8 rebounds throughout the playoffs.

Evan Mobley has been averaging 17 points almost all year. During the playoffs he’s been shooting 55% from the field. As long as his shooting is steady, he has a good chance of getting there.

James Harden is famously consistent. He’s contributed 21+ points in three of his last five games, and averages 21 for the playoffs.

Are you still with us? We’ve got one more. Dennis Schroder is averaging 7 points in the playoffs. He’s been shooting 42% from the field. That’s gotten him to 7+ points in three of his last five games.

Whew! That’s a lot of activity. As you can see, most of the lines make sense on an individual level. Put them all together, and who knows what you get? We’ll find out tonight.

That’s it for today

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