Happy Tuesday!

If you went to bed early last night, it’s probably because you thought the game was over.

And you were right.

The Eagles got absolutely beat down in Chicago.

Case Keenum, at 38 years old and making his first NFL start since 2023, somehow looked like the best quarterback on the field. He threw two touchdowns, and honestly, it could have been more. Rome Odunze dropped a wide-open touchdown that Keenum put right on him.

Ben Johnson called circles around the Eagles defense all night, while Philadelphia’s offense could barely get anything going. Their only touchdown came on that chaotic fire-drill tush push right before halftime.

Outside of that, they never really came close to scoring.

Credit to Keenum and the Bears. That was a beatdown nobody saw coming. Well, except us a little bit. Our model had a pretty clear read on how difficult the night could be for Philly, even if we didn’t get everything right.

Let’s get into how our props did.

We went 1–1 on our Monday Night Football Featured Bets.

Jalen Hurts under 18.5 completions got there comfortably. He finished 16/25 for 153 yards as Chicago made life difficult for the Eagles offense all night.

It was actually almost exactly the game script we anticipated. Jalen Hurts had to throw while struggling to complete passes consistently, but the volume just didn’t quite get there for our over 28.5 attempts.

He was also off the field for a bit while being evaluated for a concussion, much to his chagrin, which certainly didn’t help. He eventually returned, but finished with 25 attempts.

Still, a loss is a loss. We got the completions under home and finished the night 1–1.

Three QB trends we’re watching as the lines adjust.

We have two days before football returns on Sunday. We’ll be able to take an early look at model projections tomorrow, but before then, we’re starting to get enough information to separate early noise from trends worth paying attention to.

First, can anyone slow down Brock Purdy?

Purdy has been ridiculous through three games. He’s thrown for 789 yards and nine touchdowns, including four against Arizona on Sunday. At this point, the question for us is how quickly the books adjust his passing and touchdown markets to what he’s doing.

If anything could slow him down, though, my bet is injuries. The Niners are already without Nick Bosa on the other side of the ball, and then they lost Trent Williams on Sunday. We’ll be watching how his lines adjust.

Then there’s Drake Maye. Remember him?

Last year’s MVP runner-up has had a nightmare start. He has just one touchdown pass after three games, with six interceptions. When a quarterback is struggling this badly, it doesn’t just affect his own props. Attempts, completions, receiver production and game script can all shift with him.

And somewhere between those two extremes is Tyler Shough, who might be putting together the quietest impressive start of the three. He has cleared 250 passing yards in every game so far, with 917 yards and eight touchdowns after three weeks.

That consistency is what makes him interesting from a prop perspective. Eventually, the market has to decide how much of this is a hot start and how much is a genuine change in what should be expected from him every week.

It’s still early. Three games aren’t enough to tell us exactly what these players will be all season. But they are enough for the market to start reacting.

And that’s where things get interesting.

We do the modeling; the community sharpens the edge.

Tomorrow, we’ll start digging into the early model projections for Sunday. In the meantime, you can see which props are gaining attention onTrending Props and where the lines are shifting on the Boosts page.

Join the conversation on Discord to share slips, compare reads, and talk through the upcoming slate with the Propsguru community.

— Propsguru