The Browns are first place in the AFC North.

Who saw that coming?

Cleveland moved to 3–1 after beating Pittsburgh last night, and suddenly this division looks very different than it did at the start of the season.

Deshaun Watson continues to make his case as Cleveland’s answer at quarterback, the defense still looks dangerous without Myles Garrett, and the Browns have now won three straight after opening the season with a loss.

Four weeks in, the browns lead the division.

We got a great game last night. Our props? Not so much.

Let’s recap.

We couldn’t buy a win last night. 0–3.

Deshaun Watson’s completions under never really had a chance.

We thought Cleveland would keep him around the 26 attempts per game he had averaged through the first three weeks. Instead, Watson came out slinging it. He threw 33 times, completed 24, and took out both our under 18.5 completions and under 28.5 attempts.

Rodgers under 20.5 completions hurt a little more.

With about four minutes left, Cleveland was trying to run out the clock, Watson was using his legs, and Rodgers was sitting on the sideline still under our number. We were in a pretty good spot.

Then Watson threw a terrible interception.

Rodgers came back out and suddenly turned into Aaron Rodgers again. Pittsburgh marched right down the field, scored a touchdown, got the two-point conversion, and Rodgers finished with 22 completions.

And just like that, 0–3.

Four weeks isn’t a huge sample, but we’re starting to get a better picture of passing volume across the league.

Some offensive tendencies are already starting to take shape.

Teams that started the season toward the top of our passing-volume projections have mostly stayed there, while a lot of the lower-volume offenses have stayed near the bottom. There are exceptions, but we’re seeing much less movement than you might expect this early in the season.

Which is useful for player props because attempts start with opportunity. Some quarterbacks are playing in offenses that regularly create 35-plus throws. Others are playing in offenses where getting to 30 is already asking for more than usual.

Then there’s the defense on the other side.

There’s much more movement here. Atlanta has climbed dramatically, Minnesota has moved considerably from where it started, and several teams are still bouncing around from week to week.

And maybe that’s the most useful thing we’ve learned so far.

Four weeks in, we’re getting a decent idea of how much teams want to throw the football. We’re also learning how much individual defenses can change that.

As we get deeper into the season, it will be interesting to see what happens when those two signals disagree.

The good news is we don’t have long to wait for more football.

Sunday brings another full slate, and we’ll be spending the next couple of days watching the prop markets as they settle and running the latest numbers through our models.

In the meantime, you can see which props are gaining attention on Trending Props and where the lines are shifting on the Boosts page.

Join the conversation on Discord to share slips, compare reads, and talk through the upcoming slate with the Propsguru community.

We’ll be back tomorrow.

— Propsguru