It’s funny how quickly things can change in the NFL.

Atlanta started 0-2, Michael Penix Jr. was out, Cooper Rush was playing quarterback and things were looking rough.

Fast forward two weeks and the Falcons are 2-2.

Penix is back and the offense looks completely different. Bijan Robinson ran for 145 yards and two touchdowns last night, while Brian Robinson Jr. added three touchdowns of his own. B. Robinsons scored all five rushing touchdowns as the Falcons dropped 45 on the Saints in New Orleans.

Suddenly, there’s a lot to like about this Falcons team.

Week 4 is done. Let’s get into our picks.

We went into yesterday a little nervous about both Shough unders. His volume has been high all season, but we were betting on that finally coming down if New Orleans could keep the game under control.

They couldn’t.

Atlanta kept scoring, the Saints defense couldn’t stop the run, and Shough spent the night chasing the game. Even when New Orleans got something going on the ground, they simply couldn’t afford to stop throwing.

Shough finished with 48 attempts and 30 completions, comfortably over both 35.5 attempts and 23.5 completions.

We needed less Shough, the game gave us more Shough than ever.

First, can anyone stop Bijan Robinson?

He ran for 145 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries last night, including a 59-yard touchdown on the third play of the game. After four games, he now has 349 rushing yards and 118 receiving yards.

Atlanta clearly aren’t afraid to keep feeding him. If Bijan keeps giving the Falcons this much on the ground, Penix simply might not need to throw that much some weeks.

Then there’s the Saints run defense, because what the hell was that?

Five rushing touchdowns in one night.

And that matters for QB props too. If teams can control games against New Orleans on the ground, opposing quarterbacks may simply not need the passing volume we’d normally expect. That’s something to keep in mind when we start looking at attempts and completions against this defense.

And finally, is Tyler Shough’s volume here to stay?

We tried betting against it last night, and it didn’t go particularly well.

Shough finished with 48 attempts and 30 completions, blowing past both of our unders. He has now attempted 56, 34, 42 and 48 passes in his first four games.

Now, some of that is game script. New Orleans spent most of last night chasing Atlanta, so Shough had little choice but to keep throwing.

But four games is starting to look like a pattern. If New Orleans keeps putting him in situations where he has to throw 40+ times, we might have to stop waiting for the volume to come down.

Four weeks down, and we’re getting a better picture of what these teams are.

There’s plenty to dig through from Week 4, and we’ll spend the next few days watching how the markets react and where the early Week 5 lines start moving.

In the meantime, you can see which props are gaining attention on Trending Props and where the lines are shifting on the Boosts page.

Join the conversation on Discord to share slips, compare reads, and talk through the upcoming slate with the Propsguru community.

We’ll be back tomorrow.

— Propsguru