Happy NFL Sunday to all of us that celebrate!

The Colts and Commanders got us started early in London, and we’ve got football through Lions-Panthers tonight.

Buffalo managed to escape with a win against the Chargers last week. Today, they’ll face Drake Maye and a Pats defense without two of their best players, Christian Gonzalez and Christian Barmore. My best wishes to the Pats fanbase.

The Vikings also head to Miami without Justin Jefferson, but what the dolphins won’t like is that Minnesota defense is coming intact.

Then there’s Chiefs-Raiders, where somebody’s perfect start has to go. Both teams are 3–0 heading into an AFC West matchup in Vegas. I guess we know who’s losing this one.

We’ll also see several backup quarterbacks. Tampa Bay plays Green Bay without Baker Mayfield, Chicago faces the Jets without Caleb Williams, and Marcus Mariota starts for Washington with Jayden Daniels still sidelined.

We’ve got picks across the entire slate on Propsguru, from the early games through Sunday Night Football.

But as always, there are a few we like for this newsletter.

These are single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.

First up is Dak Prescott under 24.5 pass completions against Houston.

Dak has played well so far this season, throwing for 730 yards and seven touchdowns, but Houston gives him a difficult matchup. The Texans pass rush can disrupt the pocket, while Derek Stingley Jr. gives them a strong matchup against CeeDee Lamb on the outside.

Dak needs 25 completions to beat us, and our model likes him to stay below that number.  

Next is Geno Smith under 21.5 pass completions against Chicago.

Geno has been extremely efficient so far, completing 75.5% of his passes, including 83.7% last week. But Chicago has started to turn things around defensively and can bring pressure with Montez Sweat, while Jaylon Johnson returns to the secondary.

Geno has been completing passes at a rate that will be difficult to sustain every week, and our model likes him to finish below 22 against the Bears.  

Finally, Jordan Love under 20.5 pass completions against Tampa Bay.

Love threw the ball 53 times and completed 28 against Atlanta last week, but pressure has been a problem all season. He has faced pressure on 42.1% of his dropbacks through three games, and his production has dropped sharply when defenses get to him.

He’s also completing just 52.4% of his passes this season. We don’t expect another 53-attempt game, and our model has Love staying below 21 completions against Tampa Bay. 

Two props we like, combined into one parlay.

For today’s parlay, we’re pairing Lamar Jackson under 26.5 pass attempts with Cam Ward under 19.5 pass completions at +240.

We’re expecting Baltimore to keep Lamar’s passing volume down against Tennessee. He’s been at the very bottom of our passing-volume projections through the first four weeks, and if Baltimore can control the game, there may not be much reason to ask him to throw 27-plus times.

On the other side, Ward needs 20 completions to beat us. Baltimore has faced plenty of passing volume so far, but Ward still has to turn those attempts into completions. Our model likes him to stay below 20.

Let us know what you think.

We do the modeling; the community sharpens the edge.

Explore additional picks and live model insights across today’s slate on our Quick Bets and Game Pages. And remember, these lines will continue to move throughout the day, so keep an eye on the website to see where the edge improves or disappears.

Join the conversation on Discord to share slips, compare reads, and follow the games with a growing community focused on smarter prop betting.

We’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow.

— Propsguru