Happy NFL Sunday to all of us that celebrate!

Last week’s 1 PM slate was pretty ugly, but looking at the games we have today, I don’t expect a repeat.

Josh Allen and the Bills host Justin Herbert and the struggling Chargers. Mahomes goes to Miami, C.J. Stroud and the Texans try to avoid an 0–3 start in Indianapolis, Sam Darnold returns for Seattle against a Washington team without Jayden Daniels, and Jameis Winston gets the start for the Giants against Tennessee.

And then, Bom dia, Rio!

The NFL is taking the game of the week to Brazil today, when Dallas and Baltimore face off at the Maracanã. Lamar Jackson in Rio should be fun.

We finish with Rams-Broncos on Sunday Night Football, where the Rams will be without Myles Garrett and Puka Nacua, two pretty big absences that could affect how the game plays out. Not that it did last week.

We account for injuries when making our projections, but injury reports also move the market. A prop you see this morning may not have the same line or odds by kickoff, so make sure you’re tracking your favorite picks on Propsguru as the numbers change throughout the day.

That said, we’ve got a full Sunday ahead of us.

Let’s get into today’s picks.

These are single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.

We were tracking three props yesterday, but only one made today’s Featured Bets. The other two still show an edge and are available on their game pages as the odds update.

Now, onto today’s picks.

First up is Dak Prescott under 25.5 pass completions against Baltimore.

Dak needs 26 completions to beat us here, and our model doesn’t expect him to get there. Dallas may still put the ball in his hands plenty, but volume alone doesn’t guarantee completions. Against a Baltimore defense that can create pressure and make things difficult underneath, we like Dak to stay below the number.

Next is Baker Mayfield over 19.5 pass completions against Minnesota.

Minnesota blitzes more than any defense in the league, but that hasn’t necessarily been a bad thing for Baker. He’s 11-of-12 against the blitz through two games and has consistently performed well against it. If he can handle Minnesota’s pressure and Tampa keeps the ball in his hands, we like his chances of clearing 19.5.

Finally, Marcus Mariota under 29.5 pass attempts against Seattle.

This was one of the props we highlighted yesterday, and the model still likes it. Washington has averaged 157 rushing yards and 32 rushing attempts per game and now turns to Mariota. Against a tough Seattle defense, we expect Washington to lean on the ground game rather than asking Mariota to throw 30-plus times.

Two props we like, combined into one parlay.

For today’s parlay, we’re pairing Daniel Jones under 20.5 completions with C.J. Stroud over 32.5 pass attempts at +241.

We’re expecting two very different approaches from these offenses. Houston threw it 55 times without Nico Collins last week, and with Collins out again, Stroud could be busy against a Colts defense that has struggled against the pass.

On the other side, Indianapolis has more reason to keep things balanced. If the Colts can get Jonathan Taylor involved and avoid putting the game entirely in Jones’ hands, we like his chances of staying under 21 completions.

Let us know what you think.

We do the modeling; the community sharpens the edge.

Explore additional picks and live model insights across today’s slate on our Quick Bets and Game Pages. And remember, these lines will continue to move throughout the day, so keep an eye on the website to see where the edge improves or disappears.

Join the conversation on Discord to share slips, compare reads, and follow the games with a growing community focused on smarter prop betting.

We’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow.

— Propsguru