We’ve had a bright and early start to this NFL Sunday, with the Eagles and Jaguars kicking us off from London.

Back in the Capital, the Commanders have allowed 30+ points in three straight games, and they’ll be without cornerback Trey Amos against a Giants team that’s started 3–1. Jameis Winston could have a good opportunity to put that struggling defense under even more pressure.

Injuries are also a big storyline in Seattle, where the undefeated 49ers face a Seahawks team that beat them twice last season. San Francisco will be without Nick Bosa, and Seattle will be hoping to take advantage of a weakened defensive front.

With so many defensive injuries across the league, it’ll be worth watching how quarterbacks adjust, particularly in games where the passing lines are already close to their season averages.

We’ve got a full afternoon of football ahead, with plenty to watch before the Ravens and Falcons close things out tonight.

Let’s get into today’s picks!

These are single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.

First up we have Sam Darnold under 20.5 pass completions against San Francisco.

Darnold has averaged just 15 completions on 23 attempts this season, and today’s matchup against the undefeated 49ers could make it difficult for him to improve on those numbers. San Francisco has started 4–0, averaging 30.5 points per game, and will look to put Seattle under pressure early.

Which could force Darnold to throw more than usual, especially if the Seahawks fall behind, but Seattle beat San Francisco twice last season, and Darnold won’t necessarily need a high-volume passing game to keep his team competitive. Even with Nick Bosa missing for the 49ers, our model expects Darnold to stay below 21 completions.

Next we have Jayden Daniels under 29.5 pass attempts against the Giants.

Daniels has averaged 25.5 passing attempts across his two starts this season, four below today’s line. However, Washington’s defense has struggled mightily, allowing 30+ points in three straight games.

Those defensive struggles could force Daniels to throw more if the Giants build an early lead, but his ability to make plays with his legs gives Washington another way to move the ball. Our model expects him to stay below 30 passing attempts.

Finally, Jameis Winston under 30.5 pass attempts against Washington.

Winston has averaged 26 passing attempts across three appearances this season, although he only started two of those games, and he now faces a Commanders defense that has struggled to stop opposing offenses.

The Giants have an opportunity to take control of the game early and lean on their running game. If New York can establish the run against Washington, Winston won’t need to throw as often, and our model expects him to finish below 31 attempts.

What do you think? Hit reply and let us know.

Two props we like, combined into one parlay.

For today’s parlay, we’re pairing Tyler Shough under 36.5 pass attempts with Kyler Murray under 32.5 pass attempts.

Shough has averaged 45 passing attempts per game this season, as the Saints have relied heavily on their passing game.

However, he now faces a Minnesota defense that will make it difficult to sustain that volume. Our model expects him to finish below 37 attempts.

Meanwhile, Murray faces a New Orleans defense that has struggled to stop the run this season. With Murray also capable of picking up yards with his legs, the Vikings could lean more heavily on their rushing attack and limit his passing volume. Our model expects him to stay below 33 passing attempts.

And that’s it for today’s picks.

We do the modeling; the community sharpens the edge.

Explore additional picks and live model insights across today’s slate on our Quick Bets and Game Pages. And remember, these lines will continue to move throughout the day, so keep an eye on the website to see where the edge improves or disappears.

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— Propsguru