Bonjour, and welcome to Props Daily!

The NFL has already given us our first taste of Sunday football, with the Paris game wrapping up just as we’re getting started.

But there’s still plenty of football ahead.

We’ve got a packed Sunday slate, some interesting quarterback matchups, and a few props our model likes.

So grab your coffee and settle in. We’ve got plenty to cover today, but first, let’s see how our NBA picks did last night.

Tyler Herro finished with 13 points against Philadelphia, comfortably hitting our under 21.5 pick. He shot 42.9% from the field as the Bucks fell to the 76ers.

Moussa Diabaté also came through for us against Miami. He managed just 4 points in 22 minutes, well below our 9.5-point line.

Julius Randle was the one that got away. We had him under 20.5 points against Cleveland, but he finished with 23 on 58.3% shooting. Brooklyn lost a close one, 125-121.

That gives us another winning night on Featured Bets, following Friday’s 3-0 sweep. We’re now 5-1 across our last six Featured Bets, and we’ll look to keep that going with today’s NFL picks.

These are single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.

We’re starting with Kyler Murray under 20.5 completions against Indianapolis.

Murray has been busy lately, completing 24 and 27 passes in his last two games. Which makes today’s line interesting, especially against a Colts defense that’s allowing just 19.3 completions per game this season.

It’s a tougher matchup than Murray has faced recently, and we’re backing Indy to keep his completions down.

Matthew Stafford is next, and we’re taking over 35.5 passing attempts against Vegas.

The Rams have leaned heavily on Stafford’s arm this season. He’s averaging 41.5 attempts per game and has thrown 54 and 51 passes in two of his recent outings.

With LA coming off two straight losses, we’re expecting Stafford to stay busy against a Raiders defense that’s already allowed 13 passing touchdowns.

Finally, we’re taking Jordan Love over 23.5 completions against Detroit.

Love has completed 23, 25, and 22 passes in his last three games, putting him right around today’s line.

But the matchup gives us a reason to like the over. Detroit is allowing 29 completions and over 320 passing yards per game, both among the worst in the league.

If Green Bay can take advantage of that secondary, Love should have plenty of chances to clear 23.5.

What do you think?

Two props we like, combined into one parlay.

For today’s parlay, we’re pairing Tyler Huntley under 19.5 completions with Joe Burrow under 36.5 passing attempts.

The Ravens have a strong running game, and if they can establish it early and avoid falling behind, Tyler Huntley may not need to throw enough to clear 19.5 completions.

Meanwhile, Cincy’s ability to move the ball on the ground could take some pressure off Joe Burrow. We’re expecting a more balanced offense, with Burrow staying below 36.5 passing attempts.

Both picks rely on a manageable passing workload, and our model likes the unders.

We do the modeling; the community sharpens the edge.

Explore additional picks and live model insights across today’s slate on our Quick Bets and Game Pages. And remember, these lines will continue to move throughout the day, so keep an eye on the website to see where the edge improves or disappears.

Join the conversation on Discord to share slips, compare reads, and follow the games with a growing community focused on smarter prop betting.

We’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow.

— Propsguru