Happy Sunday! The NFL is already underway in London, where the Jaguars and Texans kicked things off.

Jacksonville entered the game at 4–1, while Houston is hoping its new addition, Marvin Harrison Jr., can give C.J. Stroud and the offense a much-needed boost. Though that unit has not been the problem this season.

Back home, Drake Maye is starting to find his rhythm again. After a rough start to the season, he’s led New England to consecutive wins over Buffalo and Las Vegas. He threw for 374 yards and four touchdowns against the Raiders last week, and now the Patriots host the Jets. Probably another win?

The Ravens will also be without Lamar Jackson for a second straight game. Tyler Huntley gets another start after leading Baltimore to an overtime win against Atlanta last week.

Later, the unbeaten Chiefs host the 0–5 Chargers, with Justin Herbert desperately needing a win.

And we finish the night in Green Bay, where the Packers take on the Cowboys. Jordan Love and Dak Prescott will both be under the spotlight in a matchup between two offenses capable of putting up plenty of points.

We’ve got some interesting quarterback props on today’s card.

Let’s get into the picks.

These are single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.

First we have Daniel Jones over 30.5 passing attempts which is more about his consistent volume this year.

Jones has cleared this line in all five games this season, averaging 35.2 attempts. He threw 44 passes against Pittsburgh last week, his highest total of the year.

Tennessee could give Indy opportunities to control the game through Jonathan Taylor, but Jones has still attempted at least 31 passes in every matchup, including comfortable wins.  

Next we Kirk Cousins under 36.5 passing attempts against Buffalo.

Cousins has stayed under this line in four of five games, averaging 34.4 attempts. His only miss came against Kansas City, when he threw 52 passes.

Buffalo’s defense has struggled this season, ranking 28th in points allowed and 30th in yards surrendered. Which makes the matchup interesting, although the Bills’ high-scoring offense could force Cousins to throw more than usual.  

Finally, we have Matthew Stafford over 34.5 passing attempts against Arizona.

Stafford has been throwing a ridiculous amount lately.

He’s attempted 55, 51, and 54 passes in his last three games, averaging 53.3 during that stretch. He also threw for 383 yards and three touchdowns against Buffalo on Monday night. The Rams have increasingly relied on their passing attack, and Stafford has cleared today’s line comfortably in three straight games.  

What do you think?

Two props we like, combined into one parlay.

For today’s parlay, we’re pairing Justin Herbert over 17.5 pass completions with Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 pass attempts at +237.

Herbert and the Chargers are still searching for their first win of the season. Against an unbeaten Kansas City team, Los Angeles will need its passing game to deliver. Our model expects Herbert to finish with at least 18 completions.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs have a strong running game with Kenneth Walker Jr., giving them another way to move the ball against the Chargers. If Kansas City can establish the run, Mahomes may not need to throw as often. Our model favors him staying below 31 attempts.

And that’s it for today’s picks.

We do the modeling; the community sharpens the edge.

Explore additional picks and live model insights across today’s slate on our Quick Bets and Game Pages. And remember, these lines will continue to move throughout the day, so keep an eye on the website to see where the edge improves or disappears.

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We’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow.

— Propsguru