Happy NFL Sunday to all of us that celebrate. As always, there’s plenty to watch.

Caleb Williams and the Bears get Minnesota in one of the more interesting early games. Chicago put up 59 points in Week One, and now Williams gets a Vikings defense that blitzed on 78.3% of its defensive snaps against Green Bay last week. That should make for a fun matchup between Ben Johnson’s offense and Brian Flores’ defense.  

Speaking of Green Bay, the Packers will be looking to bounce back from that loss today when they head to New York to face the Mighty Jets. On paper, this should be a good opportunity for Green Bay to get back on track. Of course, the Jets might have other ideas.

Then there’s Dallas and Washington. Both NFC East rivals are 0–1, so somebody is walking out of Dallas this afternoon with an 0–2 start.

We end the day with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs hosting Indianapolis. Kansas City looked very good in their opener against Mr 13-of-19 Bo Nix, though both quarterbacks were returning from major injuries. The Colts, meanwhile, are trying to stop a losing streak that now stretches back to last season.

Plenty to keep us occupied for the next 11 hours.

Now, let’s get to the props.

These are single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.

First, Caleb Williams over 31.5 pass attempts against Minnesota.

We talked about this matchup above, and it’s also one of the biggest differences between our model and the market today. Williams is projected for 35.7 attempts, more than four above the current line. Minnesota brought plenty of pressure last week, and we expect Chicago to keep putting the ball in Williams’ hands. We’re taking the over.

Next, we’ve got Baker Mayfield over 18.5 pass completions against Cleveland.

Baker had a strange opener, completing 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, but three turnovers and a 36.1 QBR helped dig a hole Tampa Bay couldn’t climb out of against the Bengals.

The good news for this prop? The completions were there. He cleared today’s 18.5 line comfortably, and our model projects him for 21.4 completions. We’re backing him to go over again.

Finally, we’ve got Geno Smith under 20.5 pass completions against Green Bay.

Our model projects Geno for just 18.0 completions, but there’s another number we like here too. We have him at 28.1 pass attempts against a market line of 30.5, so both models are pointing toward lower passing volume. We’re taking the under.

What do you think of today’s lines? Reply and let us know which ones you like and how you expect the games to play out.

Two props we like, combined into one parlay.

We have parlays available for every game on today’s NFL slate on the Propsguru website, but there’s one we’re highlighting for today.

We’re going back to Bears–Vikings, pairing Caleb Williams over 31.5 pass attempts with Carson Wentz under 19.5 pass completions.

We’ve already talked about Caleb above. Our model projects him for 35.7 attempts, more than four above his current line. On the other side, our model has Wentz at just 16.6 completions against a line of 19.5. Wentz does have a smaller sample than most quarterbacks on today’s board, so this is also one we’ll be watching closely.

Put them together and our Parlay of the Day comes in at +248.

We do the modeling; the community sharpens the edge.

Explore additional picks and live model insights across today’s slate on our Quick Bets and Game Pages. And remember, these lines will continue to move throughout the day, so keep an eye on the website to see where the edge improves or disappears.

Join the conversation on Discord to share slips, compare reads, and follow the games with a growing community focused on smarter prop betting.

We’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow.

— Propsguru