Happy Wednesday, folks.

We’re officially one sleep away from Thursday Night Football.

Tomorrow, the Falcons head to Lambeau Field to face a Packers team that hasn’t exactly started the season the way they imagined.

Green Bay opened the year with a loss to Minnesota, then needed overtime against the Jets just to get its first win of the season. Not exactly the start you’d expect from a team that came into September with much bigger ambitions.

Now they’re back home under the lights with a chance to steady things.

On the other side, Atlanta arrives with another change at quarterback. Michael Penix Jr. is back in the QB1 spot and will make his first start since returning from the ACL injury that ended his 2025 season.

So there’s plenty to watch tomorrow night. Can Green Bay finally put together the kind of performance we expected from them? And what does this Falcons offense look like with Penix back under center?

There are no games tonight, but the market is already starting to take shape for Thursday. So today, we’re taking an early look at Packers-Falcons, what’s moving, and what we’ll be watching before our Featured Bets go live.

Let’s get into it.

An early look at one prop our model likes before Thursday’s lines settle.

It hasn’t exactly been a smooth start for the Packers offense.

Jordan Love threw the ball 42 times for 387 yards in the opening loss to Minnesota, but that volume came from chasing the game late. In Week 2 against the Jets, his volume dropped all the way to 29 attempts, completing 16 for just 145 yards. So while Love is averaging 35.5 attempts per game, that number hides two very different game scripts.  

Green Bay has also struggled to get the running game going, even as Matt LaFleur has continued to lean on it, especially on early downs. One analysis of the Jets game found the Packers started 67% of their drives with a run. Yet they rank 31st in early-down rushing EPA, compared with eighth when dropping back to pass.  

Those early runs have repeatedly put Love in difficult passing situations. The O-line was overwhelmed by Minnesota’s blitz in Week 1—Brian Flores blitzed on 78.3% of defensive plays and generated pressure on half of them—and although the protection improved against New York, Green Bay still produced only 199 total yards and went 1/9 on third down.  

So why the under?

Our model currently has under 31.5 attempts at +5.6% EV. Love stayed below this number against the Jets, and Green Bay has shown that it still wants to establish the run rather than simply turning the offense over to him. Thursday also brings Michael Penix Jr. back for an Atlanta team that is 0–2, so the eventual game script will matter quite a bit.  

It’s Wednesday, though, so we’re calling this exactly what it is: a way too early pick. We’ll see where the line moves and what the model says closer to kickoff before deciding whether it makes tomorrow’s Featured Bets.

Hit reply and let me know what you think of the under.

What goes into projecting attempts and completions.

We’ve been spending a lot more time on passing attempts and completions as we build out our NFL models.

They aren’t the most glamorous prop markets, but that’s part of what makes them interesting. Passing attempts are largely a bet on game script. A quarterback can play badly and still fly over his attempts line if his team spends the afternoon chasing the game. He can also play brilliantly, build a big lead and barely throw in the fourth quarter.

Completions add another layer. Once we have an idea of how often a quarterback might throw, we then have to consider accuracy, pressure, depth of target, receivers and the opposing defense to estimate how many of those passes actually get completed.

That’s why simply looking at a quarterback’s recent average doesn’t tell us enough. We’re trying to estimate what this particular game is likely to ask him to do.

Today’s Jordan Love pick is a good example. His season average might point you in one direction, but the way Green Bay’s first two games unfolded tells us much more about where that volume came from.

We went much deeper into how we approach these markets in our latest article, What Sportsbooks Don’t Tell You About Passing Attempts and Completions.

Read the full post here.

And that’s it for today.

Thanks to everyone who replied to yesterday’s question about when you’d like to receive Props Daily. The votes are in. Weekday editions will now land around 5 PM ET, while Sunday editions will continue going out at noon ET before the games.

See you at 5 tomorrow with our Thursday Night Football picks.

We do the modeling; the community sharpens the edge.

Before Thursday’s props go live, you can see which props are gaining attention on Trending Props and where the lines are shifting on the Boosts page.

Join the conversation on Discord to share slips, compare reads, and talk through the upcoming slate with the Propsguru community.

— Propsguru