Three weeks into the NFL season, and I’m not sure we actually know who’s good yet.

The Chargers came into Buffalo 0–2 and jumped out to a 10–0 lead before Josh Allen eventually dragged the Bills back. The Lions needed a second-half turnaround to get past the Jets. Jacksonville demolished a New England team that was in the Super Bowl last season, 35–6. And then Chicago followed all of that by beating Philadelphia 27–7 on Monday night.

So yeah, good luck figuring out this league after three weeks.

And that matters for props too. Three games might feel like enough to start identifying trends, but we’re still dealing with tiny samples. Offensive roles are changing, coordinators are still figuring things out, injuries are already reshaping teams, and one strange game can completely distort a player’s early-season numbers.

That’s part of what makes this point of the season interesting. We finally have real 2026 data to work with, but figuring out which numbers actually mean something is where the work begins.

An early look at one prop our model likes before Thursday’s lines settle.

Aaron Rodgers has been asked to throw a lot through the first three weeks, and that caught our attention when looking through the early passing numbers.

He opened the season with 40 attempts against Atlanta, followed that with 39 against New England, and then threw another 34 times against Cincinnati. That’s 113 attempts through three games, or nearly 38 per game.  

The question is whether Pittsburgh really wants Rodgers throwing this much, or if the first three games have just played out that way.

Last week gave us one reason to think his passing volume could start coming down. After going 20 consecutive offensive drives without a touchdown entering Week 3, the Steelers put up 411 yards against Cincinnati. Rodgers threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns, but Jaylen Warren also gave them something they had been missing, rushing for 127 yards on 17 carries.  

If Pittsburgh can get more production from the ground game, Rodgers may not need the kind of volume we saw during the first two weeks.

Which makes tomorrow’s game against Cleveland interesting. Rodgers’ pass attempts line is currently 34.5, while our model likes the under at -119, with +7.8% EV.

He has reached 35 attempts in two of three games, so the market isn’t setting an unreasonable number. But both of those games came before Pittsburgh finally got its running game going. We’ll be watching whether the Steelers continue putting the ball in the 41-year-old quarterback’s hands nearly 40 times a game, or whether Week 3 was the beginning of a more balanced offense.

What do you think? We’ll keep an eye on this one and see where things stand before tomorrow’s Featured Bets.

We do the modeling; the community sharpens the edge.

Before Thursday’s props go live, you can see which props are gaining attention on Trending Props and where the lines are shifting on the Boosts page.

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— Propsguru