So that was quite the day in the NFL.

I hate to do it, but I think I’m starting to see the point of all the Justin Herbert critics. Buffalo turned the ball over five times and somehow still beat the Chargers.

The Broncos went into halftime down 16 with almost no offense, then came all the way back to beat the Rams. Remember all that preseason talk about the “Battering Rams” defense and how they could go undefeated? Well, that team is 1-2.

Before that, Baltimore and Dallas gave us the wildest finish of the season, with the Ravens winning 34–31 on a walk-off field goal. And Brock Purdy continued his ridiculous start to the season with four more touchdowns as San Francisco moved to 3–0.

There was a lot to take away from Sunday, including a few things that showed up in the prop markets.

We hit both sides of our Lamar Jackson passing volume read, with under 19.5 completions and under 28.5 attempts both cashing.

Now we turn to Monday night.

The Eagles head to Chicago to face the Bears, and we’ve got a few props we like for tonight’s matchup.

Let’s get into the picks.

We went 1–2 on our Featured Bets yesterday, with Baker Mayfield getting us the win.

Dak Prescott under 25.5 completions came painfully close. In a wild back-and-forth game against Baltimore, Dak finished with 25 completions on 40 attempts. We missed the under by half a completion.

Baker Mayfield over 19.5 completions got there. Baker finished with 21 completions, clearing the line despite Minnesota making life difficult for Tampa Bay all afternoon.

Marcus Mariota under 29.5 attempts was another close one. Mariota finished with 31 attempts in Washington’s 33–31 win over Seattle, missing our line by just 1.5 attempts.

Two very close misses, but that’s how these markets go sometimes.

We did have a much better day across some of the other picks on the website, including both Lamar Jackson passing unders.

These are single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.

Chicago will start Case Keenum at quarterback in this game, which immediately changes the shape of this matchup. The Bears will likely want to protect him, lean on the run and avoid asking him to carry the offense.

On the other side, Philadelphia hasn’t really found its running game yet this season, averaging 112.5 yards on the ground through two weeks. Chicago hasn’t been dominant against the run either, so this could be an opportunity for the Eagles to get it going.

But if those early-down struggles continue, Jalen Hurts may again be asked to carry more of the offense through the air. 

That’s where our picks come in.

We have Hurts over 28.5 pass attempts, with the model showing a +3.8% edge. The game script gives him a path to 30+ attempts if they can’t simply run away with the game on the ground.

But volume doesn’t necessarily mean efficiency. We also have Hurts under 18.5 completions. Put the two together and the model is essentially looking for Hurts to throw enough, while completing fewer than roughly two-thirds of those passes.

That’s where the numbers sit right now. Check the website closer to kickoff to see if the lines or model edge shift before the game.

We do the modeling; the community sharpens the edge.

Explore additional picks and live model insights across today’s slate on our Quick Bets and Game Pages. And remember, these lines will continue to move throughout the day, so keep an eye on the website to see where the edge improves or disappears.

Join the conversation on Discord to share slips, compare reads, and follow the games with a growing community focused on smarter prop betting.

We’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow.

— Propsguru