Happy Tuesday, folks. The start of the NFL season has already delivered plenty of excitement. The Kansas City Chiefs pulled off a 31-10 victory over the Denver Broncos.
More interesting to league-wide fans, however, was the question of how Patrick Mahomes would return to form following a serious knee injury that easily could have seen him sitting out for some or all of this 2026 season.
The performance was solid. Chiefs fans will rejoice, Chiefs enemies won't, but regardless, we can all agree that the game is more interesting with him in it, right?
There are no more games until Thursday, which means no props, but we will take a look at how our picks from last night did and cover some more stories.
Quick Bets Recap
A 2–1 night for the model.
Mahomes returned from injury needing to stay under 22 completions. He finished with just 15 completions on 27 attempts, comfortably cashing the first pick.
The model also had Mahomes under 33.5 attempts. Kansas City kept his passing volume below the line, with Mahomes attempting just 27 passes. That gave us our second hit of the day.
Bo Nix was the one that didn’t get there. We needed him to finish with 21 or fewer pass attempts, but he ended the game with 28 in a game he threw up a bunch of lousy ones.
That leaves us 2–1 on the day. We’ll continue tracking every pick the model produces, including the misses, as we build a larger sample and learn where the model is performing well and where it needs improvement.
Player Spotlight
Less than one week in, and the NFL has already delivered hearty doses of greatness. A lot of people are talking about Patrick Mahomes' early drive in last night's season opener for the Chiefs. Cries of "he's back" rang out throughout social media.
But today we're spotlighting the achievements of Tyler Shough. Shough led Week 1 with 410 passing yards on 56 attempts in New Orleans' high-volume game script. The Saints quarterback didn't quite squeak out a win, losing by a margin of one against the Lions. But he did demonstrate an enormous amount of potential.
Stay in the Game
We do the modeling; the community sharpens the edge.
Explore additional picks live model insights across today’s slate on our Quick Bets and Game Pages.
Join the conversation on Discord to share slips, compare reads, and sharpen your edge. You can be part of a growing community focused on smarter prop betting.
— Propsguru
