Happy Monday, friends.

Well, that was quite an NFL Sunday.

The Chiefs and Colts saved one of the best games for last. Patrick Mahomes threw for 382 yards and three touchdowns as Kansas City won 33–30 in overtime.

The bigger story elsewhere was injuries. Caleb Williams left Chicago’s 9–3 loss to Minnesota with what has since been reported as a pulled hamstring, while Jayden Daniels suffered a dislocated elbow against Dallas.

Seattle had considerably more fun. Jaxon Smith-Njigba went for 155 yards and three touchdowns in a 31–7 win over Arizona, where Marvin Harrison Jr. somehow finished without a catch.  

So, yes. There’s quite a bit to talk about this morning.

And while everyone was chasing touchdowns yesterday, the passing attempts and completions markets quietly gave us plenty to work with.

Let’s get into how the picks did.

We went 1–2 on our Featured Bets yesterday, with Baker Mayfield getting us the win.

We had Caleb Williams over 31.5 pass attempts, with our model projecting 35.7. The volume was there, but he left the game injured with more than three minutes remaining and finished on 26 attempts. That one goes down as a loss, although the injury obviously changed how the game finished.

Baker Mayfield over 18.5 completions got there. Baker completed 21 of 34 passes in Tampa Bay’s loss to Cleveland, clearing the line after our model projected him for 21.4.

Then there was Geno Smith under 20.5 completions. This one went completely the other way. Geno finished with 27 completions on 41 attempts as the Jets and Packers went to overtime.

Baker gets us the winner, Caleb gets cut short by injury, and we were simply wrong on Geno.

These Featured Bets weren’t the whole board, though. We had a much better day across some of the other picks available on the website. While touchdowns tend to get most of the attention on an NFL Sunday, some of the quieter passing-volume markets gave us plenty to work with.

These are single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.

First we have Matthew Stafford over 32.5 pass attempts. The Rams are coming off a rough loss in Australia and could be without Puka Nacua, while the Giants showed in Week 1 that they can control a game and put points on the board.

If New York keeps this competitive, we like the opportunity for Stafford to have plenty of passing volume.

That also leads us to Stafford over 21.5 completions. Our model is pointing in the same direction across both Stafford markets tonight. Rather than needing explosive plays or touchdowns, we’re backing him to consistently put the ball in the air and complete enough of those attempts to clear both lines.

On the other side, we have Jaxson Dart under 18.5 pass attempts. New York ran for 165 yards against Dallas in Week 1, and Cam Skattebo gives them a reason to keep leaning on the ground game. With Aaron Donald also making his season debut for Los Angeles, we like the Giants keeping some of the pressure off Dart rather than asking him to throw the ball all night.

So tonight, our model is essentially expecting more passing volume from Stafford and a more run-heavy approach from New York.

What do you think? Are you with us on these three tonight?

Two props we like, combined into one parlay.

For tonight’s parlay, we’re staying with the same game script.

The Stafford leg is the same reasoning as above. We’re expecting Los Angeles to put the ball in the hands of the reigning MVP plenty tonight.

Likewise with Dart. New York ran for 165 yards in Week 1 and has every reason to keep Cam Skattebo and the ground game involved, especially with Aaron Donald returning for LA.

That’s our Monday Night Football parlay at +237.

We do the modeling; the community sharpens the edge.

Explore additional picks and live model insights across today’s slate on our Quick Bets and Game Pages. And remember, these lines will continue to move throughout the day, so keep an eye on the website to see where the edge improves or disappears.

Join the conversation on Discord to share slips, compare reads, and follow the games with a growing community focused on smarter prop betting.

We’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow.

— Propsguru