Happy New Month, and welcome back to Props Daily.

Another busy night of MLS action is on deck, with 10 matches across the league. Three games we’ll be watching particularly closely are LA Galaxy vs. FC Dallas, Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders in another chapter of one of the MLS’s best rivalries, and Minnesota United vs. San Diego FC as they continue to push for playoff positioning.

We’re now well into the MLS season, and over the past few weeks we’ve continued monitoring how our models perform in its first live conditions. Most of our development effort have recently shifted toward building our NFL models ahead of the new season, so updates to the MLS models have been more incremental. Even so, we’ve continued tracking every projection and making adjustments where we’ve seen opportunities to improve.

One thing we’d really love to hear is how the picks have been performing from your perspective. If you’ve been following our projections this season, hit reply and let us know what’s worked well, what hasn’t, and what you’d like to see us improve. That feedback is really valuable as we continue refining the models.

We’ll share a bit more about where the NFL model stands later in this newsletter. But first, let’s get into today’s picks.

Single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.

Prince-Osei Owusu has been one of Montréal’s most reliable goal scorers this season, with 9 goals and 6 assists already to his name. He’s at the center of almost everything they do going forward, and has registered 16 shots on target. Our model gives him a better chance of scoring than +115 odds suggest against New England.

Milan Iloski has made an instant impact since joining Philadelphia Union. He’s also scored 9 league goals already and has found the net in four consecutive MLS matches. With the form he’s in, the edge is in continuing that run against Atlanta United.

Rafael Navarro rounds out today’s Featured Bets. He’s been Colorado’s biggest attacking threat this season, scoring 8 league goals and leading the line every week. With the Rapids back at home, our model expects Navarro to generate another strong scoring opportunity.

Which player are you backing today? Hit reply and let us know.

It’s officially August.

NFL training camps are here, the Hall of Fame Game is just around the corner, and we’re now only a few weeks away from the start of another football, err the World Cup is over so Football(??), season. Around the league, teams are beginning to prepare for Week 1, and behind the scenes, we’ve been doing the same.  

One of the things we’re most excited about this season is our NFL passing props model, and we wanted to give you, our newsletter subscribers, a first look at what we’ve been building behind the scenes.

Rather than relying on historical averages alone, our model simulates how an entire game is likely to go. It considers quarterback tendencies, defensive tendencies, down and distance, field position, time remaining, and expected game flow before running thousands of game simulations.

From those simulations, we estimate the probability of different outcomes and compare them against the prop markets to identify opportunities where we believe value exists.

We’re still in the testing and validation stage, but the early results have been encouraging. Over the next few weeks, we’ll continue sharing a bit more on the model, how it works, what we’re learning, and how it’s performing as we get closer to Week 1.

We do the modeling; the community sharpens the edge.

Explore more picks and live model insights across today’s slate on our Quick Bets and Game Pages.

Have thoughts on today’s Featured Bets? Reply to this email or join our Discord to share your picks, compare reads, and discuss the weekend’s action with the community.

We’ll be back in your inbox next week with another edition of Props Daily.

— Propsguru