Week Two is officially underway, folks. The Detroit Lions will face off against the Buffalo Bills in a matchup that, at least theoretically, favors Buffalo. The game will be held in the new Highmark Stadium, located in Orchard Park. Buffalo is known for bringing the energy on a normal day, so you can expect some intensity tonight.

The quarterbacks are going to be the primary feature tonight: Josh Allen and Jared Goff. Both bring legitimate firepower to the table.

The last time the Bills and the Lions faced off, in 2024, it was a truly competitive shootout that ended 48-42 in favor of the Bills.

The Lions, it's worth noting, are going into today's matchup disadvantaged in the trenches. Their right tackle, Blake Miller, is out with a knee injury, and the starting left guard, Christian Mahogany, has been ruled out due to a hip injury.

The Bills are relatively healthy, although three players, including safety Cole Bishop, running back Ty Johnson, and defensive lineman T.J. Sanders, are listed as questionable.

There are also plenty of moving pieces in the betting market, with some of tonight’s prop lines shifting as we get closer to kickoff.

Let's get into it.

These are single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.

Josh Allen and Jared Goff headline today’s prop picks as Buffalo and Detroit meet on Thursday Night Football.

For Allen, we’re taking Over 31.5 pass attempts at -112. He opened the season with 29 attempts against Houston, completing 20 for 334 yards and two touchdowns in Buffalo’s 36–31 win.

Tonight, we’re expecting more volume. If Detroit can keep pace offensively, Allen should be asked to throw more than he did in Week 1. We need 32 attempts to cash, and we like his chances of getting there in a matchup that could keep Buffalo aggressive throughout the night.

We’re also taking Jared Goff Over 23.5 completions at -120. Goff cleared that number comfortably in Week 1, although in overtime, completing 26 of 39 attempts for 206 yards and two touchdowns.

That 39-attempt workload is particularly encouraging for this line. If Detroit continues giving Goff that kind of passing volume, he doesn’t need an exceptional efficiency night to reach 24 completions. With Buffalo on the other side capable of keeping pressure on Detroit to score, we like Goff’s chances of getting there again.

Both picks point toward a game that keeps both quarterbacks throwing tonight.

Today’s Parlays

Want to combine today’s two featured picks? We’re pairing the two at +246.

There are a few things that make tonight’s passing volume interesting. Both teams have legitimate options on the ground with Jahmyr Gibbs and James Cook, so neither offense necessarily needs to throw the ball 40 times to move it. We’ve also seen the prop lines move quite a bit leading into the game, which is worth keeping an eye on before kickoff.

Still, we like the numbers where they currently sit. Goff completed 26 of 39 passes in Week 1, comfortably clearing 23.5 completions. Allen attempted 29 passes in his opener, so we need a little more volume from him tonight to clear 31.5.

The path for both comes down to game script. If Lions–Bills stays competitive and both offenses continue answering each other, there should be enough passing volume for Goff to reach 24 completions and Allen to get to 32 attempts.

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