The Knicks could potentially tie the 15 game post-season win streak record set by the Golden State Warriors in 2017. New York hasn’t lost since April which has, naturally enough, resulted in a narrative developing around this team.

Are they invincible? Will the Knicks’ widespread fanbase have something to celebrate for the first time since 1973?

The Spurs, by comparison, have had a more winding path to the Finals. In today’s newsletter, we will take a look at what sporting streaks mean—both for fans, and bettors.

Streaks are fun. They’re also temporary.

“Regression to the mean,” is a phrase that all prop bettors should be familiar with. Basically, it means that a player—or team—can and will have fluctuating performances. If someone averages 15 points per game, but puts up three 30 point nights in a row, that (probably) isn’t their new normal.

With enough time, they will not only dip below 30, but also below 15, as they regress back to their mean.

In other words, unless something fundamental has changed (more minutes, a new role, etc.) the player is still basically a 15 point scorer. Performance can still vary from game to game. However, with enough time there will be observable consistency.

Team wide winning streaks exist on a similar—though admittedly more complicated scale. The Knicks finished the regular season with a .600 record. Respectable? Sure. But also several big steps removed from what we are now seeing out of them.

That doesn’t mean that they are destined to revert back to a .600 record. At this point, there aren’t enough enough games left for that to be possible.

It does serve as a reminder. Invincibility narratives are fun, but also fictional. This is important information for prop bettors to remember. It’s also what adds dynamic volatility to sports betting.

On a macro scale, it could be safely assumed that the Knicks impressive streak will end in defeat. On the micro scale—which is what we’re working with now—well, the Spurs are running out of time to close the deal.

At this point, there is no more margin for error. Ok. Technically, the Spurs could tank on Monday. They’ll still live to fight another day. They’ll just have a monstrous—and never before taken—path to victory.

Historically, less than 15% of teams with an 0-2 start to the Finals have gone on to win. Those are bad odds, but they beat the 0% of teams that have started 0-3 and won.

At this point in the season, everything matters. Every whistle. Every possession. Every shot. The Spurs are now in the difficult position of needing to catch up with a genuinely tough team.

The Knicks might not be truly invincible in the long-run, but in a series that could be over by Wednesday, that’s not really the point.

San Antonio fans can take some heart in the fact that the series is closer than the record indicates. In fact, just a little bit of luck in the other direction could have resulted in the Spurs meeting this new week two up.

At this point though, close really does only count in hand grenades. We’ve just about reached the point of “win or go home.”

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If you only read our newsletter, you’re likely used to reading mostly about daily news, and unique angles on player props. On our blog, we dabble in longer-form, more evergreen insights.

It’s a great place to learn more about things like “regression to the mean,” and other theories and strategies that can improve your betting, and just help you take deeper satisfaction in the games you love.

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We’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow with updated edges for Game 3!

— Propsguru