Welcome back to Props Daily.
We’re deep into the knockout rounds of the World Cup, and it’s been one of the most entertaining tournaments we’ve watched in years. From France putting a dominant stop to Morocco’s run yesterday, to the United States getting blown out by Belgium amid red card gate, to surprise performances from countries like Cape Verde and Egypt that both almost threw out Messi, there has been no shortage of storylines.
While the World Cup has temporarily shifted attention away from domestic leagues, we’ve been using this period to continue refining the models that power Propsguru.
Over the next few weeks, we’ll also be sharing more educational content to help explain the types of data and concepts that go into our projections. Today, we wanted to start with one of the most common questions we get:
How are player projections actually built?
Behind The MLS Models
One of the most common questions we get at Propsguru is where our projections come from. Sometimes we say thats our Krabby Patty Secret Sauce but we do want you to see behind the curtain.
Projections estimate a player’s realistic range of outcomes for a specific match. The goal is not certainty but to estimate probabilities more accurately than intuition alone.
Everything starts with data.
We use official league statistics like minutes, shots, shots on target, touches, and key passes. We also monitor lineup news, injuries, and betting market information.
Recency is especially important.
Players change roles, teams adjust tactics, and injuries happen. Historical data still matters, but recent games often receive more weight.
From there, we evaluate several core inputs:
Expected minutes
Role and usage
Per-90 production
Team attacking volume
Opponent tendencies
Home and away splits
A player in a possession-heavy attack against a defense that allows plenty of shots will project differently from one in a low-volume environment.
The objective is not to predict exactly what will happen. It is to estimate what is most likely given the information available before kickoff.
The process updates continuously as new games are played and new information becomes available.
What We’re Watching As MLS Returns
The MLS season resumes soon, and several themes will be central to our projections throughout the remainder of the season.
We’re paying close attention to:
Players whose roles changed before the World Cup break
Teams generating the highest shot volume and chance creation
Possession-heavy clubs that consistently create opportunities
Matchups that create significant differences in expected shot volume
Home and away splits across the league
These factors often matter far more than a player’s last game or even their last few games.
Context drives opportunity, and opportunity drives projections.
Looking Ahead To NFL Season
While MLS returns first, NFL preparation is already underway.
We’re continuing work on quarterback, receiver, and defensive player projection models while evaluating how team tendencies, pace, usage rates, and opponent matchups influence player outcomes.
As training camps begin and depth charts take shape, we’ll start sharing more of the work happening behind the scenes and how we’re approaching NFL projections heading into the season.
That’s it for today
As always, thank you for reading and for being part of the Propsguru community. Check out our blog page for more breakdowns.
If you haven’t already joined us on Discord, now is a great time. We’re sharing product updates, discussing World Cup matches, reviewing models, and preparing for the return of MLS and NFL action.
We’ll be back in your inbox next week. Enjoy your weekend!
— Propsguru
