It’s not quite “win or go home” for the Spurs, but it’s close. No team in NBA history has fallen behind 0-3 in the Finals and come back to win the championship.

Despite the 2-0 deficit, San Antonio has kept this series competitive. A bounce here, a run there, and they could easily be heading to Madison Square Garden with the advantage instead.

But that’s not where things stand.

The Spurs still have a path back into this series, but history isn’t on their side. Fewer than 15% of teams that started the Finals down 0-2 went on to win it all.

We’ve got some interesting props to look at today. Let’s get into it.

Single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.

Jose Alvarado has been averaging nearly 1.5 rebounds per game during the post-season. Playtime is definitely a rebounding bottleneck in this case. During the regular season, his minutes fluctuated from 15-20, and he was finding a few boards per game.

Since the playoffs, he’s been under ten minutes per game, and his rebounding has been less predictable as a result. He’s only exceeded 2 rebounds in two of his last five games. Regardless, though, this is the soft sort of line that any NBA player could clear in the right circumstances.

You could say something similar about the 6 or over scoring line on Keldon Johnson. It also helps that he is a very consistent and capable scorer. He averaged nearly 15 points in his last ten games, shooting 44% from the field.

Johnson has cleared 6 points in six of his last ten games.

Finally, we’ve got Josh Hart scoring 10 or more. Hart’s offensive production has been a little all over the place.

He hasn’t reached double digits in any of his last three games and was completely scoreless on Friday. However, he did still average 14 points during the Eastern Conference Finals.

It will help a lot if he can shoot close to his 50% average.

Multiple edges combined into one value-driven parlay.

This is basically the same line we looked at earlier for Josh Hart. As mentioned before, his offensive production has been a little sporadic recently. Still, this line doesn’t ask anything of him that he’s not very capable of doing.

De’Aaron Fox is in a similar boat. His scoring dipped a little during the post-season, but he’s still been reliable. While he averaged just 11 points during the Western Conference Finals, he was nearer to 20 per game prior to that. If his shooting holds to 40% or higher, that will be a good start to this over. From there, it’s just a question of volume.

We covered Keldon Johnson in Featured Bets as well. As mentioned previously, he’s been in the upper to mid-teens range for most of the post season, clearing 7 points per game with some consistency recently.

Finally, Luke Kornet. In the past, he’s cleared 4 rebounds before even getting out of bed in the morning. He averaged 6 during the regular season, but often found considerably more.

His minutes have been cut in half during the post-season. Naturally, that’s slowed down his rebounding some. That said, he still averaged nearly 3.5 during the Western Conference Finals even with limited playing time.

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— Propsguru