The Browns and Steelers will play for first place in the AFC North tonight. Who saw that coming?

Pittsburgh finally got its offense going last week as Aaron Rodgers threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns against Cincinnati. On the other side, Cleveland has quietly won two straight, and Deshaun Watson has thrown multiple touchdowns without an interception in both wins.

The Browns defense has been doing its part too, generating pressure on 42.2% of opposing dropbacks, which could make things interesting for the 42 year old Rodgers tonight.

Two 2–1 teams playing for first place. Should be a fun one tonight, or in typical AFC North fashion, a dogfight.

Let’s get into the picks.

These are single-prop angles where our model shows higher probability than the odds reflect.

For Watson, we’re taking Under 18.5 pass completions. He’s completed 68.3% of his passes through three games, but Cleveland has kept his passing volume relatively low, averaging just 26 attempts per game. At that rate, Watson would need to complete more than 71% of his passes to reach 19 completions.

Which makes the volume important tonight. If Cleveland can stay balanced and avoid falling behind early, he may simply not get enough opportunities to clear this number.

We’re also taking Aaron Rodgers Under 20.5 pass completions. Rodgers has been throwing plenty through the first three weeks, but Cleveland is a much tougher matchup. The Browns have generated pressure at one of the highest rates in the league, which could make it difficult for Pittsburgh to turn all of that passing volume into completions.

Rodgers can still throw the ball 30-plus times and stay under this line. He needs 21 completions to beat us, and our model currently shows a +7.5% edge on the under.

Finally, we have Deshaun Watson Under 28.5 pass attempts. This one follows a similar idea to his completions line. Cleveland has averaged just 26 pass attempts per game through three weeks, and Watson has yet to be asked to carry the offense through the air.

If Cleveland can play tonight on its terms, Watson staying below 29 attempts is still the side our model prefers.

All three picks point toward a quieter night through the air. What do you think?

Two props we like, combined into one parlay.

We’re combining two of our featured unders for a +256 parlay.

Watson has averaged just 26 pass attempts per game, so we like his chances of staying under 18.5 completions if Cleveland can keep the game close.

For Rodgers, Cleveland’s ability to generate pressure gives us another reason to like the under 20.5 completions, even if Pittsburgh continues letting him throw.

We do the modeling; the community sharpens the edge.

Explore the live model insights for today’s game on our Quick Bets and Game Pages. And remember, these lines will continue to move before kickoff, so keep an eye on the website to see where the edge improves or disappears.

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We’ll be back with the recap tomorrow.

— Propsguru