The Chargers are 0-4, and they’re probably the only team that deserves it.

The Texans defense has been the problem this year. Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards, CeeDee Lamb went for 189, and Dallas walked out of Houston with 34 points.

Drake Maye might be back. Going into Buffalo and throwing for 269 yards and three touchdowns is one hell of a response after the way his season started.

The Eagles forgot games have four quarters. They took a 20-10 lead into the fourth, scored zero points in the second half, and somehow lost to Matthew Stafford, who couldn’t stop throwing picks.

Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan just keep finding ways to win. San Francisco is still perfect after taking care of Denver.

And Carolina? what a performance in prime time.

Bryce Young threw for 329 yards and two touchdowns, Chuba Hubbard ran for 122 yards and two more, and Tet McMillan completely destroyed Detroit for 14 catches, 192 yards and two touchdowns.

That Lions defense has plenty of injuries, but eventually you have to tackle somebody.

It was that kind of Sunday.

For us, there were some wins, some misses and a few props that came down to a single attempt. Now that Week 4 is almost in the books, we have another week of data to dig through and a much better picture of what the models are seeing.

Let’s get into it.

Geno Smith under 21.5 completions was the comfortable winner. Chicago completely controlled the game, leaving the Jets with only 32 offensive plays and Geno with just 15 attempts. He finished with 8 completions for 119 yards.

Jordan Love under 20.5 completions came close, but he finished with 22 completions on 30 attempts, putting him 1.5 over the line.

And Dak Prescott under 24.5 completions never really had a chance once Cowboys-Texans turned into a shootout. Dak finished 32/45 for 335 yards as Dallas comes back to win.

1–2 on these ones, and we turn our attention to Monday Night Football.

Tyler Shough has been one of the more interesting quarterbacks to start the season. In three games, he’s thrown for 917 yards and eight touchdowns while completing 68.9% of his passes.  

But his passing volume has already started coming back down. Shough opened the season with 56 attempts against Detroit in overtime, then dropped to 34 against Baltimore and 42 against Las Vegas. His completions have followed a similar path at 35, 27, and 29.  

Tonight he gets Atlanta at home. For both of these unders, the bet is essentially that New Orleans doesn’t need another game where Shough is throwing 40-plus times. His 35.5 attempts line sits below two of his first three games, while 23.5 completions would require his lowest completion total of the season.

The model thinks this is the spot where his passing volume finally takes a bigger step back.

Tyler Shough under 35.5 attempts and under 23.5 completions.

We do the modeling; the community sharpens the edge.

Explore additional picks and live model insights across today’s slate on our Quick Bets and Game Pages. And remember, these lines will continue to move throughout the day, so keep an eye on the website to see where the edge improves or disappears.

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We’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow.

— Propsguru